
Chuck A Arize- MBA PhD
- Regents Professor and Lion Legacy Distinguished Professor at East Texas A&M University
Chuck A Arize
- MBA PhD
- Regents Professor and Lion Legacy Distinguished Professor at East Texas A&M University
Dynamic Specification and Nonlinear ARDL Connectedness market performance, bank development, and Economic Uncertainty
About
287
Publications
704,296
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Introduction
I hold an MBA and a doctorate in Applied Econometrics/Statistics. Prior experiences from VIRCO Corporation and Spalding Statistical Services. Current research interest is on asymmetric relationships in banking, finance , international business and economics. Current research tools are Economic and Financial Times Series, Cointegration, Vector-Error Correction modeling, ARDL, and NARDL Estimators. Citations are over 4000 including World Bank, IMF, EEC, Harvard University and Africa org.
Current institution
Additional affiliations
January 2016 - present
January 1990 - present
September 2000 - present
Texas A&M University System
Position
- Regents' Professor
Publications
Publications (287)
This study investigates in a country-specific and comparative manner the interactions among foreign remittances, economic growth rate, foreign direct investment inflow and foreign trade giving attention to the impact of divestment. This study that is contextualised in Africa's two leading economies of Nigeria and South Africa covers the period 1971...
This paper examines the interaction between health expenditure and health outcomes with due consideration for government effectiveness across developing African economies. The rich data for this study draw from forty-five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries covering the period 1960 to 2022. The analysis follows a country-specific comparative manner...
This study evaluates the co-movement and volatility transmission between the two leading stock exchanges in Africa-the JSE and the NSE. The study is motivated by the need to establish the linkage between the two leading stock markets in Africa for the imperatives of sustainable development and provision of funding for diverse entrepreneurial endeav...
This study investigated the impact of monetary policy channels on the real sector performance in selected sub-Saharan African countries. This study covers the period 1990 to 2020. The broad objective of the study was to examine the impact of monetary policy transmission channels on the real sectors of selected sub-Saharan African countries within t...
Recent developments in the Nigerian telecommunication industry have significantly been attracting multinational investors from emerging markets into the country, especially from African and Asian countries. This has led to massive influx of investors into the country’s Global System for Mobile (GSM)communications market since 2001. This paper inves...
Purpose
This study investigated the interactive impact of global and domestic stock market variables on the depth of the financial system in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1990 to 2018.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used the mean group and pooled mean group estimators for the dynamic heterogeneous panel.
Findings
The results pro...
The new direction on the link between a measure of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is to estimate nonlinear models to determine if trade flows respond to exchange rate volatility in an asymmetric manner. In this paper we consider the U.S. trade flows with 12 South American partners. Estimates of traditional trade models revealed that only U...
The study investigated the link among interest rate, credit, exchange rate and private investment with focus on the Nigerian economy. The sets of data are drawn from the statistical bulletin of the Nigerian Central Bank for the period 1981 to 2016. The ARDL bound test approach showed that the elasticity of private investment to the studied variable...
This study evaluates the comovement and volatility transmission between the two leading stock exchanges in Africa-the JSE and the NSE. The study is motivated by the need to establish the linkage between the two leading stock markets in Africa for the imperatives of sustainable development and provision of funding for diverse entrepreneurial endeavo...
Purpose
This study aims to investigate in a country-specific comparative and panel form, the impact of energy use on financial development in Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-African countries of Algeria, Gabon, Libya and Nigeria.
Design/methodology/approach
With data sets covering the period 1980 to 2020, this study used a com...
The new direction on the link between a measure of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is to estimate nonlinear models to determine if trade flows respond to exchange rate volatility in an asymmetric manner. In this paper we consider the U.S. trade flows with 12 South American partners. Estimates of traditional trade models revealed that only U...
This study looked at the impact of financial development, environmental sustainability and energy intensity on the transition of SSA countries to safe and green energy use. This was pursued using a dynamic panel model—system generalized method of moments (SGMM), given its capacity to address endogeneity problems in panel estimation processes. The s...
We estimate the bilateral trade balance model of the United States with each of its 12 largest trading partners from South America in order to test both the symmetric and asymmetric J‐curve effect. When a linear ARDL model was estimated, we found support for the symmetric J‐curve in the U.S. trade balance with Argentina, Colombia, Guyana, Peru, Uru...
Purpose
This study investigated the interactive impact of global and domestic stock market variables on the depth of the financial system in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1990 to 2018.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used the mean group and pooled mean group estimators for the dynamic heterogeneous panel.
Findings
The results pro...
The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none has considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar...
In this study, we examine the financial development effect of population aging pattern in India. We examine the period 1960 to 2017 and analyse the various types of age dependency, which includes both old and young measures. By using structural VAR and ARDL techniques, we find that changes in young age dependency have a significant impact on change...
The potential links between financial deepening and economic growth have received much attention in recent years, yet without consensus in the literature especially on the method of estimation. This paper examines the long run relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in Nigeria using autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model...
During the economic crisis of 2008, the global economic system came under tremendous stress due to unusually high activity in the risk spread and volatility in the financial asset valuation. The spread between the US Treasury Bill Rate and the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), a proxy for perceived counterparty credit risk called the “TED spread...
We used Panel ARDL and Panel NARDL to investigate the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of Non-Performing Loan (NPL) in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) for the period 2003 to 2018. We found that both bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants jointly influence NPLs in varying degrees. There is also empirical evidence that NPL adj...
Purpose: The objective of this paper is to study possible diversity of exchange rate models, by applying both parametric and nonparametric techniques, and examines said models’ collective predictive performance. Design/Methodology/Approach: We shall choose the forecasting predictor with the smallest Root Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSE). The bette...
Published Since the introduction of asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling, old theories have been getting a renewed attention, and purchasing power parity theory (PPP) is no exception. In this paper, we revisit the PPP by applying this relatively new technique. When we applied the symmetric cointegration test of Pesaran et al. [Pes...
This study employed a combination of linear and nonlinear models to investigate the energy-growth nexus of OPEC member nations from 1960 to 2018 in a country-specific form. It questioned the environmental friendliness of the energy initiatives of OPEC member nations as major producers and exporters of crude oil. Primary evidence of the study shows...
The topical issues of interest include, but are not restricted to: An asymmetric consideration of exchange rate changes on trade balance using developed or developing economies data; An asymmetric consideration of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in developed or developing countries; Bilateral trade flow reactions to exchange rate in the fac...
This study investigated in cross-country and panel form the interactions of bank development, stock market development and global equity index, focusing on the BRICS countries covering the period 1990 to 2018. We found a bidirectional causation between bank development (CPSGDP) and stock market performance as proxied by the depth of the markets (MC...
This is thefirst study of Thailand’s export demand relations10utilizing the new nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL) technique by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo. The study reports long-run elasticities and exposes the short-runadjustment of real exports to changes in foreign economic activity, relative export price, and exchange-rate risk...
Economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are two uncertainty measures that are said to affect the demand for money in any country and our region of interest, Africa, is no exception. In this paper, we take an additional step and argue that changes in any uncertainty measure could have asymmetric effects on the money demand. After applying the...
Purpose
The purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on the most recent development in asymmetry cointegration and error-correction modeling.
Findings
While the authors find short-run asymmetric effects in many of...
In this study, we develop a way to test for the two theories, the Monetary and the Traditional, in explaining exchange rate Northeast Decision Sciences Institute 2019 Annual Conference 17 determination. The approach we develop has two components to it. The first is a test of the appropriate signs. That is, the two theories disagree on the signs of...
In this paper we consider the asymmetric effects of real effective exchange rate changes on domestic production of 13 African nations, the first comprehensive study on the topic in Africa. We find that exchange rate changes have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on output in most countries in Africa. However, the results are country specifi...
A glance through the literature on the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows reveals that African countries have received the least attention. We consider the response of exports and imports of 13 African nations to a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-based measure of exchange rate uncertainty. Like...
Purpose
This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design is empirical and ex post facto . This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and e...
This paper evaluates various exchange rate models, considers their predictive performance effectiveness after applying parametric and nonparametric techniques to them, and chooses the exchange rate forecasting predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). The autoregressive model in Equation (34) shows the most consistent evid...
The health care industry would benefit greatly from economic analysis. Theories and models of healthcare economics need to be modified or extended to accommodate changing institutional features. In particular health consumers are buying a product they know little about (information) with someone else’s money (third-party payment)
due to insurance (...
Banks and stock market represent the key drivers of any financial system all over the world and their relationship/dynamics has remained a core area of interest in finance and monetary economics. There exist two opposing views in this regard - linearand nonlinear association. It is on this backdrop that this paper evaluates the dynamics of bank dev...
This paper examines whether households diversify their investment portfolios and whether portfolio diversification could be affected by where investors seek advice. We found that respondents find advice from banks, insurance companies, and brokerage houses less helpful compared to reading investment research and financial periodicals when making th...
This paper evaluates various exchange rate models, considers their predictive performance effectiveness after applying parametric and nonparametric techniques to them, and chooses the exchange rate forecasting predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). The autoregressive model in Equation 34 shows the most consistent eviden...
This study examines the full process of how paintings originate, and how they proceed from creation to the final stage of their sale. In it, we shall see that there are a few parties, which are involved from beginning to end. We observe in this that the artist is not the supreme being, but a cog in the wheels of the creation and distribution of art...
The study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) one hand European countries on the other hand. This study uses an assortment of cointegration tests and error-correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of the long-run el...
A strand of the literature concentrates on assessing the impact of exchange rate changes on a country’s inpayments from and outpayments to its trading partners. Most studies have considered the U.S. experience with partners from OECD but not for those from Africa. We fill this gap by including 14 African partners in our study. We assess not only th...
This paper scrutinizes several exchange rate models, considers the effectiveness of their predictive performance after applying both parametric and nonparametric techniques to them, and chooses the forecasting predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). Equation (34) displays empirical evidence consistent with a better examp...
For the first time in the body of literature, we consider bilateral trade balance models of the US with each of her 20 trading partners from Africa and try to assess the J-curve phenomenon. After applying the linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches, we find support for the J-curve effect in three partners from the linear models. However, support rises...
This work is an extension of the existing literature on growth of factors of production, output expansions and welfare of a nation involved in international trade. It used to be an accepted notion that growth augments welfare without a question until Jagdish Bhagwati, and later Harry Johnson provides the contrarian views on the issues under specifi...
ABSTRACT
This paper reexamines the interplay between banks and capital markets in the Nigerian financial
system. Using the ARDL/Bounds test cointegration approach and error correction model (ECM)
technique on the time-series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the period
1981-2014, we found a long-run link between bank and mark...
This paper looks at mergers and acquisitions of companies. Specifically, the paper reviews the backdrop of mergers and takeovers, their history, types and reasons, prospects of productivity, synergy, growth, reduction of risk, and associated challenges. The analysis is conducted in the light of mergers and acquisitions in Europe and the United Stat...
A long-standing debate about the financial structure of an economy has concerned the superiority of banks or capital markets as well as at what stage of economic development either plays a dominant role in an economy. More recently, there has been a paradigm shift in the debate, from superiority to the interplay between banks and markets in a finan...
Foreign exchange exposure is a measure of a firm's profitability, net cash flow, and market value changing as a result of a change in exchange rates. An important duty of the financial manager is to measure the effect of foreign exchange exposure and manage it in such a way as to maximize the profitability, net cash flow and market value of the fir...
This paper uses an efficiency specification model of the spot and forward foreign exchange markets and tests the hypotheses for random walk (which cannot be rejected), general efficiency, and unbiasedness by using a regression estimation and various specification and diagnostic tests for the series and the error terms (residuals). Whereas the forwa...
This paper examines the cointegration property of exchange rates and prices using techniques that have received limited attention in several studies on the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. It provides comprehensive evidence on the PPP hypothesis using recent monthly data for 1971 through 2011 (i.e., 492 observations). The p...
The Gini coefficient is a measure of income inequality. In this study we show that it needs to be adjusted to be a correct measure of income inequality. The result is that decomposition is possible even without the interaction effect. The requirement however, is that there are data on individual incomes. Secondly, the approach is applied to Greece....
A country is said to live within its international budget constraint if its exports and imports are cointegrated. Previous studies that tried to verify the cointegration between exports and imports used linear models and supported the theory in almost 50% of countries. In this paper, when we use the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetry cointegrati...
In this study, we develop a way to test for the two theories, the Monetary and the current account, in explaining exchange rate determination. The approach we develop has two components to it. The first is a test of the appropriate signs. That is, the two theories disagree on the signs of the determining variables. Thus, depending on the sign of th...
The main aim of this article is to investigate the foreign exchange exposure in international transactions and how it affects profitability and the market value of firms. The present study analyses the transaction cost associated with these transactions which is part of a more extended research using a questionary sent to multinational companies in...
This work constructs an asymmetric structure of neoclassical model of trade, and reexamines the theorems of trade, which were derived originally in 2 × 2 × 2 paradigm. Absence of non-traded sector, noted by Bhagwati, has been highlighted in a more serious fashion. Then optimum price distortions in the form of taxes, subsidies, and tariffs are intro...
The present paper is an evaluation of those skill clusters and practices that are associated with superior ratings of executive presentation skills. It focuses on improving executive presentation skills. It explains the basics of oral presentation skills in general that apply across domains including that of business and management. Six sets practi...
This study examines relationships between managers’ self and subordinate ratings of controlling and power sharing on their units' perceptions of intra-group and interunit cohesiveness. Four hundred and forty-five NASA middle managers and 1795 of their subordinates completed a 122 item survey of management practices and group climate. Results indic...
This work constructs an asymmetric structure of neoclassical model of trade, and reexamines the theorems of trade, which were derived originally in 2 × 2 × 2 paradigm. Absence of non-traded sector, noted by Bhagwati, has been highlighted in a more serious fashion. Then optimum price distortions in the form of taxes, subsidies, and tariffs are intro...
In this research study we explain the basic content of Financial Accounting Statement number 87 (FAS # 87). We also give evidence for its early adoption by diverse firms and analyze the reasons for its early adoption. Finally, we present the state of pension accounting before the adoption of FAS # 87.
This paper studies a diversity of exchange rate models, applies both parametric and nonparametric techniques to them, and examines said models’ collective predictive performance. We shall choose the forecasting predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE); the empirical evidence for a better type of exchange rate model is in e...
This paper suggests an alternative yet effective way of obtaining long-run parameters of ARDL estimators as well as their test statistics. We contribute by providing an approach that is simple to implement, user-friendly and portable in which we can simultaneously investigate not only the long-run relationship but also the short-run dynamics. Addit...
This paper uses a large variety of different models and examines the predictive performance of these exchange rate models by applying parametric and non-parametric techniques. For forecasting, we will choose that predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). The results show that the better models are in equations (3), (10), (...
This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate on the trade balance of eight countries in the context of several nonlinear techniques, especially the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The advantages of the NARDL approach vis-à-vis earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient short-run and long-run coe...
Empirical investigations on the financial structure of most economies have largely focused on the superiority of financial services offered banks or capital markets as well as at what stage of economic development of such economies do these respective services predominate. There is, however, a departure in the debate from the interplay between bank...
The generally held view in bank development and stock market development relationship is that of a linear/symmetrical association. Recent events arising from regulatory changes, level of competition, transaction costs, information flow distortions, naivety on the part of investors and the volatility of the financial system; call for a reexamination...
This paper suggests an alternative, yet effective way of obtaining long-run parameters of ARDL estimator. The approach is simple to implement, user-friendly and portable. It can be used without the need to buy new software. The use of this approach may be indispensable in the face of tighter expenditure budgets. Simple Bivariate and multivariate ex...
This paper uses a large variety of different models and examines the predictive performance of these exchange rate models by applying parametric and non-parametric techniques. For forecasting, we will choose that predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). The results show that the better model is equation (34), but none of...
This paper examines the practitioners of money management in Saudi Arabia about their fundamental and technical analysis and its indicators and how it contributes to improving their investment decisions. Additionally, this paper testes the effects of industry forces, such as demographics and psychographics, on stocks choosing process. Moreover, mon...
This paper examines diverse exchange rate models and their predictive performance by applying parametric and nonparametric techniques. For forecasting, we will choose the predictor with the smallest root mean square forecast error (RMSE). The empirical
evidence for a better type of model is represented by equation (34), although none of the evidenc...
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![Figure 1: Nigeria Capital Adequacy Ratio [2004 -2019] Figure 1 below...](profile/Chuck-Arize/publication/338421940/figure/fig1/AS:844605423644672@1578381033077/Nigeria-Capital-Adequacy-Ratio-2004-2019-Figure-1-below-shows-the-graph-of-the-capital_Q320.jpg)





















