T. Comes

• Dr.
• Professor (Full) at Delft University of Technology

Urban resilience and vulnerability are often paired conceptually, but the dynamics of their relationships are rarely tested with space-time-based data. We tracked the 2019 European heatwave across Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague, combining hour-by-hour ambulance calls with district profiles identified from demographic, socioeconomic, health, an...

Epidemics are long-lasting and transboundary crises that challenge traditional approaches. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of modern cities, interventions can lead to unintended consequences or maladaptation. Although adaptation is central to resilience, crisis management often focuses on short-term response, leaving a gap in understand...

Using novel data and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in crisis resilience and management is increasingly prominent. AI technologies have broad applications, from detecting damages to prioritizing assistance, and have increasingly supported human decision-making. Understanding how AI amplifies or diminishes specific values and how responsi...

To effectively coordinate the response to a flood disaster, decision-makers have to prioritise areas that are in most urgent need of assistance. This prioritisation often has to be carried out under time pressure and on the basis of incomplete information, creating a high cognitive load for decision-makers. Methods that integrate Bayesian networks...

Purpose Sudden-onset disasters impact the health and well-being of millions of people each year. Typically, a sudden-onset disaster will lead to a surge of patients that require immediate acute care, even though health infrastructure and resources may be destroyed or not accessible. The challenge of patient flow logistics is transporting those in n...

Social vulnerability assessments play a crucial role in guiding the allocation of budgets and resources for effective disaster preparedness and humanitarian response. Climate change, escalating conflicts, and the climate finance and humanitarian funding gap make social vulnerability assessments essential. Despite advances in data collection, availa...

Digital technologies and AI promise to optimise complex systems through data-driven decisions, predictive modelling, and anticipatory action. However, this optimisation imperative creates a fundamental paradox: as systems excel at achieving measurable objectives, they may erode the collective intelligence and adaptive capacity of our societies. Rec...

In flood disasters, decision-makers have to rapidly prioritise the areas that need assistance based on a high volume of information. While approaches that combine GIS with Bayesian networks are generally effective in integrating multiple spatial variables and can thus reduce cognitive load, existing models in the literature are not equipped to addr...

Humanitarian and military organizations face deeply uncertain, continuously changing environments due to disasters and conflict. Information sharing is vital to adapt to these disruptions effectively and ensure the timely availability of essential equipment and supplies anywhere in the world. However, little is known about the role ofinformation sh...

Introduction The 2021 European floods in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands significantly impacted healthcare. With climate change increasing flood risks, healthcare preparedness is essential. Floods affect healthcare directly and indirectly by disrupting patient access, damaging infrastructure and impeding care continuity. Our interdisciplinary...

In emergencies, high stake decisions often have to be made under time pressure and strain. In order to support such decisions, information from various sources needs to be collected and processed rapidly. The information available tends to be temporally and spatially variable, uncertain, and sometimes conflicting, leading to potential biases in dec...

The Weizenbaum Institute organised its sixth Annual Conference on the topic of “Uncertain journeys into digital futures” in Berlin in June 2024. The conference focused on the challenge of the digital transformation and the socio-ecological transformation of society which are closely interlinked and crucial for prospering futures of humanity. Challe...

Infrastructure resilience plays an important role in mitigating the negative impacts of natural hazards by ensuring the continued accessibility and availability of resources. Increasingly, equity is recognized as essential for infrastructure resilience. Yet, after about a decade of research on equity in infrastructure resilience, what is missing is...

Urban vulnerability is affected by changing patterns of hazards due to climate change, increasing inequalities, rapid urban growth and inadequate infrastructure. While we have a relatively good understanding of how urban vulnerability changes in space, we know relatively little about the temporal dynamics of urban vulnerability. This paper presents...

Collective intelligence of diverse groups is key for tackling many of today's grand challenges such as fostering resilience and climate adaptation. Information exchange across such diverse groups is crucial for collective intelligence, especially in volatile environments. To facilitate inter-group information exchange, Informational Boundary Spanne...

In emergencies, high stake decisions often have to be made under time pressure and strain. In order to support such decisions, information from various sources needs to be collected and processed rapidly. The information available tends to be temporally and spatially variable, uncertain, and sometimes conflicting, leading to potential biases in dec...

Urban areas are dynamic systems, in which different infrastructural, social and economic subsystems continuously co-evolve. As such, disruptions in one system can propagate to another. However, open challenges remain in (i) assessing the long-term implications of change for resilience and (ii) understanding how resilience propagates throughout urba...

Increasingly, our cities are confronted with crises. Fuelled by climate change and a loss of biodiversity, increasing inequalities and fragmentation, challenges range from social unrest and outbursts of violence to heatwaves, torrential rainfall, or epidemics. As crises require rapid interventions that overwhelm human decision-making capacity, AI h...

Increasing frequency of climate-related disruptions requires transformational responses over the lifecycles of interconnected urban systems with short- and long-term change dynamics. However, the aftermath of disruptions is often characterised by short-sighted decision-making, neglecting long-term urban shifts. In this study, we present a first att...

A scoping systematic review of resilience to natural hazards within economics and business literature.

A scoping systematic review of resilience to natural hazards within economics and business literature.

A scoping systematic review of resilience to natural hazards within economics and business literature.

A scoping systematic review of resilience to natural hazards within economics and business literature.

Increasing frequency of climate-related disruptions requires transformational responses over the lifecycles of interconnected urban systems with short- and long-term change dynamics. However, the aftermath of disruptions is often characterised by short-sighted decision-making, neglecting long-term urban shifts. In this study, we present a first att...

Background Prompted by recent shocks and stresses to health systems globally, various studies have emerged on health system resilience. Our aim is to describe how health system resilience is operationalised within empirical studies and previous reviews. We compare these to the core conceptualisations and characteristics of resilience in a broader s...

Disasters amplify existing inequalities, and infrastructures play a crucial role in this process. They determine the access of vulnerable communities to clean water, food, healthcare, and electricity. Increasingly, the need to account for equity in infrastructure resilience has been recognized. After about a decade of research in this domain, what...

Climate change is one of the main drivers of uncertainty for long-term urban planning. While only a few papers systematically address long-term climate uncertainties in planning theory, urban resilience theory presents principles to manage this uncertainty. However, urban resilience theory largely focuses on individual urban systems rather than com...

Involuntary displacement from conflict and other causes leads to clustering of refugees and internally displaced people, often in long-term settlements. Within refugee-hosting countries, refugee settlements are frequently located in isolated and remote areas, characterized by poor-quality land and harsh climatic conditions. Yet, the exposure of ref...

Evaluation and testing are significant steps in developing any information system. More attention must be devoted to these steps if the system is to be used in high-risk contexts, such as the response to conflict disasters. Several testing methodologies are designed to guarantee that software fulfills technology requirements; others will assure usa...

Covid-19 has dramatically changed life in cities across the globe. What remains uncertain is how national policies and appeals to comply with suggested rules translate to changes in the behaviour of citizens in urban areas. This lack of local knowledge leaves urban policy makers and planners with few clues as to the determinants of social resilienc...

Our goal with this review is to explore and describe how conceptualisations of resilience reported in the health domain compare to conceptualisations in other domains (specifically, engineering sciences, socio-ecological sciences, and community resilience concepts). The search string focussed purely on medical/clinical databases as our aim was to c...

The aim of this umbrella review is to synthesize the available techniques and measures in measuring resilience of infrastructures, communities, urban areas, and organizations.

Qualitative research is a powerful means to capture human interactions and behavior. Although there are different methodologies to develop models based on qualitative research, a methodology is missing that enables to strike a balance between the comparability across cases provided by methodologies that rely on a common and context-independent fram...

To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be integrated into flood risk management. We advocate that the welfare of different societal groups should be included by adding recovery capacity, impacts of beyond-design events, and distributional impacts. To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be...

To adapt to a changing climate, decision-makers design, evaluate, and implement measures that have an implication of justice on citizens in the present and well into the future. Decision-makers are often required to make decisions without certainty of the consequences and understanding their effects on intergenerational justice. Thus, managing the...

Cities are complex socio-technical systems (STSs) under tremendous stress due to climate change. To incorporate resilience into urban plans and move towards evidence-based long-term decision-making, we must unravel complex land-use dynamics and the effect of climate uncertainties on cities. Currently, land-use dynamics are explored through Cellular...

Novel data sensing and AI technologies are finding practical use in the analysis of crisis resilience, revealing the need to consider how responsible artificial intelligence (AI) practices can mitigate harmful outcomes and protect vulnerable populations. In this opinion paper, we present a responsible AI roadmap that is embedded in the Crisis Infor...

The challenges for sustainable cities to protect the environment, ensure economic growth, and maintain social justice have been widely recognized. Along with the digitization, availability of large datasets, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are promising to revolutionize the way we analyze and plan urban areas, opening new opp...

Purpose The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health crisis worldwide and heavily disrupted the healthcare supply chain. This study focuses on analysing the different types of disruptions occurring in personal protective equipment (PPE) supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic and on proposing mitigation stra...

The growing need for humanitarian assistance has inspired an increasing amount of academic publications in the field of humanitarian logistics. Over the past two decades, the humanitarian logistics literature has developed a powerful toolbox of standardized problem formulations to address problems ranging from distribution to scheduling or location...

Humanitarian crises, such as the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic, challenge information management and thereby threaten the digital resilience of the responding organizations. Crisis information management (CIM) is characterised by the urgency to respond despite the uncertainty of the situation. Coupled with high stakes, limited resources and a hig...

During infectious disease outbreaks, early warning is crucial to prevent and control the further spread of the disease. While the different waves of the Covid-19 pandemic have demonstrated the need for continued compliance, little is known about the impact of warning messages and risk perception on individual behavior in public health emergencies....

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts...

Agent-based models (ABM) for policy design need to be grounded in empirical data. While many ABMs rely on quantitative data such as surveys, much empirical research in the social sciences is based on qualitative research methods such as interviews or observations that are hard to translate into a set of quantitative rules, leading to a gap in the p...

Humanitarian crises, such as the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic, challenge information management and thereby threaten the digital resilience of the responding organizations. Crisis information management (CIM) is characterised by the urgency to respond despite the uncertainty of the situation. Coupled with high stakes, limited resources and a hig...

During infectious disease outbreaks, early warning is crucial to prevent and control the further spread of the disease. While the different waves of the Covid-19 pandemic have demonstrated the need for continued compliance, little is known about the impact of warning messages and risk perception on individual behavior in public health emergencies....

This paper focuses on the particular power of storytelling to foster reflection and connections between people in urban life. In fact, the core principles and mechanisms for public storytelling to achieve this have yet to be made explicit. This gap is addressed by introducing a novel reflective storytelling framework that unveils the underlying pri...

Droughts and changing rainfall patterns due to natural climate variability and climate change, threaten the livelihoods of Malawi’s smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the population. Provision of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) is one means to potentially increase the resilience of rainfed farming to drought by informing farmers in their...

Blockchain technology promises to improve the efficiency, transparency, and accountability of humanitarian operations. Yet at the same time, especially the humanitarian context with its characteristic volatility poses unique challenges to any technology. Most prominent are the humanitarian principles that are fundamental to humanitarian operations....

Along with climate change, more frequent extreme events, such as flooding and tropical cyclones, threaten the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor and vulnerable populations. One of the most immediate needs of people affected by a disaster is finding shelter. While the proliferation of data on disasters is already helping to save lives, identifying da...

As climate change is becoming a reality, there is an increasing demand to improve urban resilience. Planning Support Systems (PSS) enable climate-informed planning. However, previous research confirms difficulties in the uptake of PSS due to their resource-intensive nature and lack of awareness of their usefulness. This chapter aims to make a headw...

Along with climate change, more frequent extreme events, such as flooding and tropical cyclones, threaten the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor and vulnerable populations. One of the most immediate needs of people affected by a disaster is finding shelter. While the proliferation of data on disasters is already helping to save lives, identifying da...

The Covid19 crisis has highlighted once more that socioeconomic inequalities are a main driver of vulnerability. Especially in densely populated urban areas, these inequalities can drastically change even within neighbourhoods. However, conventionally such vulnerabilities are analysed at city or district scale. As such, new methods with higher gran...

Literature about humanitarian logistics (HL) has developed a lot of innovative decision support systems during the last decades to support decisions such as location, routing, supply, or inventory management. Most of those contributions are based on quantitative models but, generally, are not used by practitioners who are not confident with. This c...

Traditionally, disaster management information systems have been designed to facilitate communication and coordination along stable hierarchical lines and roles. However, to support coordination in disaster response, disaster management information systems need to cater for the emerging roles, responsibilities and information needs of the actors, o...

Literature about humanitarian logistics (HL) has developed a lot of innovative decision support systems during the last decades to support decisions such as location, routing, supply, or inventory management. Most of those contributions are based on quantitative models but, generally, are not used by practitioners who are not confident with. This c...

In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, local and international aid organisations deploy to deliver life-saving aid to the affected population. Yet pre-disaster road maps and road transportation models do not capture disruptions to the transportation network caused by the disaster or the dynamic changes of the situation, resulting in uncertainty...

More than any other facet of resilience, social resilience raises the inherent tension within the concept between identity or persistence, and transformation. Is a community the people who make it up, or the geography or physical infrastructure they share? What about the resilience of communities that transform, as a result of a sudden disaster or...

Humanitarian disasters are highly dynamic and uncertain. The shifting situation, volatility of information, and the emergence of decision processes and coordination structures require humanitarian organizations to continuously adapt their operations. In this paper, we aim to make headway in understanding adaptive decision‐making in a dynamic interp...

Resilient critical airport infrastructures affected by a disaster need to sustain minimal functionality and quickly resume full operation , while at the same time coping with the increased operational demands imposed by the unfolding disaster response. In this paper, we develop a resilience framework and model-driven approach that focuses on the ab...

There are two dominant trends in the humanitarian care of 2019: the ‘technologizing of care’ and the centrality of the humanitarian principles. The concern, however, is that these two trends may conflict with one another. Faced with the growing use of drones in the humanitarian space there is need for ethical reflection to understand if this techno...

Citizens' engagement in their neighbourhood community is pivotal for cities to effectively deal with future transitions. Knowing what is going on and having access to the neighbourhood network are important conditions for this. Although prior research has studied ways to foster information sharing between citizens, the underlying assumptions and de...

As humanitarian organizations are struggling to reach an increasing number of beneficiaries, humanitarian-business partnerships, such as the use of logistics service providers (LSPs), promise to improve effectivity and efficiency of humanitarian assistance. Blockchain-based smart contracts which ensure automation, transparency, and efficiency promi...

The efficient and effective response to disasters critically depends on humanitarian supply chains (HSCs). HSCs need to be flexible to adapt to uncertainties in needs, infrastructure conditions, and behavior of other organizations. The concept of ‘network flexibility’ is, however, not clearly defined. The lack of an unanimous definition has led to...

Humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) contribute significantly to achieving effective and rapid responses to natural and man-made disasters. Though humanitarian organizations have during the last decades made considerable efforts to improve the response to crises in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, HSCs are still faced with so many challenges, on...

In the humanitarian response, multiple decision-makers (DMs) need to collaborate in various problems, such as locating temporary relief distribution centres (RDCs). Several studies have argued that maximising demand coverage, reducing logistics costs and minimising response time are among the critical objectives when locating RDCs after a sudden-on...

Humanitarian aid workers who try to provide aid to the most vulnerable populations in the Middle East or Africa are risking their own lives and safety to help others. The current lack of a collaborative real-time information system to predict threats prevents responders and local partners from developing a shared understanding of potentially threat...

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for research through game design and discuss how simulation games can be used to bridge the gap between operational exercises and simulation or analytical modelling and to provide guidelines on how simulation games can be designed for different research purposes in the context of humanit...

Information and supporting information systems is a key element in an effective emergency response. From creating situational awareness to informed decision making, information enables responders to optimize their decisions and operations. Today, with the increased availability of information technology around the globe, a new active player in the...

Evaluation and testing are major steps in the development of any information system, particularly if it is to be used in high-risk contexts such as conflicts. While thus far there are various approaches for testing against technology requirements; usability or usefulness, there is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation framework that combines the thr...

Locating distribution centers is critical for humanitarians in the immediate aftermath of a sudden-onset disaster. A major challenge lies in balancing the complexity and uncertainty of the problem with time and resource constraints. To address this problem, we propose a location allocation model that divides the topography of affected areas into mu...

Resilient communities are an important prerequisite to reach urban resilience. In such communities, citizens need to be able to participate for improving liveability and safety of their environment. The playable city, where participation is key, provides the environment for this process to unfold. This paper researches requirements for the design o...

Resilient communities are an important prerequisite to reach urban resilience. In such communities, citizens need to be able to participate for improving liveability and safety of their environment. The playable city, where participation is key, provides the environment for this process to unfold. This paper researches requirements for the design o...

Humanitarian logistics operations perform challenging tasks while responding to large-scale natural disasters. Decision makers at different stages of humanitarian operations exploit numerous problem-specific decision-making models or tools. When synchronising the outputs (decisions) from models into a unified solution, the situation becomes critica...

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At the onset of an indoor fire emergency, the availability of the information becomes critical due to the chaotic situation at the emergency site. Moreover, if information is lacking, not shared, or responders are too overloaded to acknowledge it, lives can be lost and property can be harmed. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to identify informa...

Scenarios are designed to support decision-makers in gaining a better understanding of the consequences of their decisions. Scenario-based simulations, hence, present an ideal way to train decision-makers for complex and high-risk situations. Usually, training scenarios are human-authored which is limiting in terms of the number and diversity of th...

The introduction of new information and communication technologies enables communities to share information and self-organize in the response to disasters. Crowd-sourcing approaches enable professional authorities to capture information from the ground in real-time. However, there is a gap between the professional and community-driven response: loc...

This paper describes the IsITethical? Exchange, a European knowledge and service hub we are developing with and for diverse parties involved in crisis and disaster risk management. Their commitment to European values and fundamental rights underpins the rationale of the initiative, which is to support European societies' need for high quality innov...

The profusion of information technology has created new possibilities for local communities to self-organize and respond to disruptive events. Along with the opportunities, there is also a series of challenges that need to be addressed in order to improve societal resilience. One of these challenges is to make sense of the continuous stream of info...

The Humanitarian Supply Chain (HSC) is key to successful relief operations. Today, HSC managers faces many challenges: (1) the increasing gap between funding and appeals; (2) donors ask for more transparency and accountability; (3) the growing pressure to switch to sustainable development. To maintain a competitive position (order winner) in the ne...

Information plays a critical role in humanitarian assistance. It has become a product that is shared for multiple purposes such as situational awareness, decision-making, coordination, reporting, and attracting funding. In the aftermath of sudden onset disasters, humanitarians are constrained with huge workload, time pressure, and uncertainties and...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how far technology and information enable, facilitate or support the planning and implementation decisions in humanitarian vaccine cold chains for vaccination campaigns. The authors specifically focus on three emerging technologies that have the potential to create more flexible conditions in the field, and i...